Primaries on 3/5, Trump and Cruz

“David has set a litmus test that a Democrat​

would have to pass to get the nomination and

that no Republican could pass and get the

Republican nomination and so thus he will

pinch his nose and vote for Hillary or any other

Democrat, no matter how low of character or dishonesty or

untrustworthy over any Republican no matter

how high of character and honesty and trustworthy”.

 

I don’t believe I ever said that.

What I did say is that The current slate of Republican candidates are committed to destroying all and any of the progress we’ve made over the last years from the global crash of 2008, including some new disasters they loudly proclaim, including, but not limited to:

  1. Getting an “A” rating from the NRA
  1. Obliterating the very beneficial “Planned Parenthood” and denying women control over their own bodies, forcing them to whelp unwanted babies then complaining if and when they end up on Welfare.
  1. Obliterating meaningful health insurance for 12 million citizens, offering them a “savings plan” that might pay for 1% of a serious illness, or unaffordable private insurance.
  1. Tearing up a hard-fought and hard-won agreement that limits Iran’s ability to develop nuclear capability. Putting them right back on track to do anything they want as fast as they want to.
  1. Ridiculous plans to stop illegals crossing a completely porous border. Spending billions in a futile effort to seek out and deport illegal aliens, divers Islamics.
  1. “Downsizing” government, handing it over to equally corrupt and inefficient local or regional governments, more difficult to regulate.
  1. Reducing income taxes that mainly benefit the rich, allowing others to pick up the slack.
  1. God only knows how they would deal with certifiable crazies in North Korea.

Without exception, the current slate advocates all these points, some more vociferously than others. They are examples of how the “conservative” wing has hijacked the GOP, and in a perfect world, they would fall big, just like Goldwater in 1964. Trump is a bit of an exception, I’ll get to him in a while.

So, now that the dust has settled, several things are fairly clear.

Kasich is a dead man walking. Rubio now has no statistical path and it’s only a matter of time before he drops out. Once that happens, one wonders where their followers will go. I suspect they will back Cruz since the practical difference between Rubio and Cruz is nil, and they are, after all, “establishment” candidates. Christie is an anomaly, looking for some political favors from the candidate he has figured out will be the eventual nominee.

As a purely practical matter, I would rather see either Cruz or Rubio selected as the nominee. Neither would have a good chance of winning a general election, especially against Hillary who has a much stronger game than she has had in the past. Once the media vividly and endlessly pointed out Rubio’s Tea Party roots, he would fade quickly. Cruz has an astronomical “dislike” rating even within his own party that would bleed over to the general electorate quickly. He’s a particularly arrogant demagogue. The media would also vividly point out the many ways he’s tried to plunge the country back to William the Conquerer in 1066. They embody “conservative principles” that not only don’t work, they’re destructive. Neither of these guys could beat Hillary.

Then comes Trump, a de novo creation of a political system that got an approval rating of something like 6%? I heard one of Trump’s strategists interviewed by Poppy Harlow. She made it very clear. The voting public (ALL the voting public) has decided that they want the entire system destroyed and rebuilt at the hands of an aggressive, assertive leader-type that talks tough and has the capability to get things done by strength of will, cutting through the inefficient “system”. She remarked that she hoped the Republican establishment continued to try everything possible to gut Trump, as every bit of it made him stronger, especially ridiculous clown acts like Romney. The voters have en masse decided what they want and it’s do do whatever it takes to destroy the status-quo. The voters will have their way.

However, the events of yesterday suggest that Trump’s facade might be at least showing some cracks for exactly the reasons I mentioned earlier. Like Palin, every time he opens his mouth he shows more volatile inconsistency and it’s starting to be noticed, even by those desiring to break the system. They’re probably figuring out that the system needs to be broken but Trump is too capricious to be the one to do it. And since his stock in trade is his mouth, he has little choice but to continue in that vein, but in time, he’ll start showing himself to be what he is, a reality show ringmaster.

But I think he still has a shot at it because the USA has become a “reality-show” country. The very existence of Kardashians, The Batchelor, The Bachelorette, The Voice, American Idol, Real Housewives, and so ad infinitum points this out. The entire country is a variation on the themes of reality shows and so it was only a matter of time that a reality show ringmaster would rise and the public would accept him. At this stage, I think there is a very real chance that Trump will prevail and make it to the convention with a majority of the votes. I think it will be Trump vs Cruz and the only unknown now is how many of the other candidates followers will line up for whom and how much it will matter when the numbers are counted. Even if he doesn’t make a quorum and the convention gets brokered, you can bet that the same Republicans who loudly criticize “yellow dog Democrats” will line up to support ANY Republican with a chance of winning.

I think Cruz is far too disliked by far too many people to win, disliked for different reasons than Trump. Cruz would be a disaster. Hillary would beat him. That leaves Republicans with the option of lining up for Trump even though he isn’t a typical Republican and can’t be controlled by the party. I think they would hold their noses and sing Trump’s praises hoping to get him to see the party line once elected. Good luck with that.

If Trump were elected by a LOT of voters currently showing their hands, he would be somewhat less of a disaster than Cruz. He would have a higher propensity to make pragmatic deals that might work and figure out quickly what would never work under any circumstances (wall, illegals round-up, keeping Islamics out). If it came down to one or the other, if I were a Republican, I think I’d support Trump long before Cruz and just hope for the best.

As it pertains to Bernie and Hillary, I think Bernie was called out too soon as the events of Yesterday showed. If Bernie continues to make a showing in the future Primaries, he won’t quit for a while and every day he stays in weakens Hillary. In the end, it might be close, but I think Democratic voters will never elect a European-style socialist. And again, I personally think Hillary’s e-mail debacle is pure, US Govt Certified Prime Bullshit, but it is after all a way to get at her by her numerous enemies. Who knows, it might be unexpectedly successful. But I doubt it. I think it will fade in the future.

Hillary vs Cruz- Hillary would win. Americans won’t elect a Tea Party nut case. Hillary is the lesser evil.

Hillary vs Trump- Might be close, but in the end I think Sharpton is correct, Democrats and Independents would come out of the woodwork in huge droves to vote against Trump. Hillary would still win.

Sanders vs Trump- Would be a serious problem for the country. We would not elect a socialist. Trump would win and we would all just take our chances with an unstable, labile President.

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