It is after all Sunday and this is a bit more of a time for a “Village Green” observation by your FL, for what it might be worth. What I’m about to say involves an obligatory observation on National politics because it impacts what’s happening in medicine today and in the near future. My observations are NOT so much for public debate here as they are simply pointing out facts, as they are readily apparent. Please just reflect on this, not start arguments. Med-Events does that very nicely. If you want to argue about politics, join Events.

A paper came across my desk (enclosed) suggesting that the potential for health care providers’ autonomy is under assault and eventually will all but disappear. I think there are clear reasons for this. The demand for medical care continues to increase but the supply remains relatively static. All kinds of schemes have been developed though the years do decrease the demand (cutting the price). Denying service for pre-existing conditions, “managed care”, “rationing by inconvenience” and yet the cost of health care continues to increase yearly.

The “Affordable Care Act of 2008” (Obamacare) hoped to put a dent in that by spreading the cost out over a very large population, some sick, some well, and of course, “opt-outs” wouldn’t be allowed, as they would eventually turn up in emergency rooms demanding care even though they hadn’t paid the premium. Part of this plan would have been the “public option” to take care of outliers.

There isn’t really much argument that this plan would have worked pretty well, allowing for adjustments, had it been implemented as formulated. Not perfect but a very good start to get people covered for their health care affordably. What happened was a bit unexpected. We didn’t realize at the time that opponents of the President became the “party of no” vociferously obstructing, delaying and destroying everything and anything that came out of that White House. The ACA then became a political issue and was widely advertised by the Party of No as something it wasn’t. Then the Public Option was killed, removing much of the efficiency of the entire program, followed by allowing healthy people to opt out of the program leaving a large population of sick ones.

Of course, as a natural consequence of supply and demand, the price per individual rose, as it would have (and did) for any kind of health care indemnification. Blamed on the program, of course. I had lunch with a very intelligent, perceptive friend (not the only one I have that supports repeal of the ACA) who solemnly advised me that she couldn’t wait to see the ACA repealed because middle class people couldn’t afford it and it was literally bringing the economy down. Never mind that any- and every health care indemnification program in the country was similarly raising their rates, including mine.

Enter the stimulus for all this, the current President-Elect of the USA, Mr. Trump, and his new best friends, ultra-conservative Republicans now in control of congress and soon to be also in control of the Judiciary. Mr. Trump, a very talented and experienced huckster knows nothing about any of it, but his new friends do and they’re now after many years of trying, in place to do damage to health care and a great many other things in our lives.

As is widely observed, the election of Mr. Trump caught virtually every observer by surprise, but not me. They that Pennsylvania is a state with two cities on either end (Pittsburgh & Philadelphia) with Alabama between, and that turned out to be true last Nov 8). I saw it coming as I rode bikes around the rural center of Pennsylvania, spotting Trump signs on virtually every home or business in small towns and country areas. I knew all these people would vote and they intended to “shake up” the establishment that no longer worked for them (not suspecting they had the potential to destroy it).

So now, before the new President-Elect actually takes power, we’re already getting a view of how it’s going to be.

1. The institution of a Presidential Cabinet full of officers dedicated to untried and unlikely theoretical political ideals, not necessarily the benefit of the population.

2. The dissolution of a health care system that currently serves about (said to be) twenty million should to one degree of another with the promise of something to replace it someday.

3. A President-Elect that has publically disputed the opinion of every single individual in every single intelligence and law enforcement office regarding the illegal and intrusive activities of Russia in our political-social system. “The difference between skepticism and disparagement”

4. As of Friday, the funding of a wall separating the USA from Mexico asked to be funded by congress with a bill to be sent to the other side with no mechanism to collect it. Estimated cost ~ 25 billion $ and estimated by most experts to be worthless.

5. Active plans to decrease any and all funding for the poor and disadvantaged, active plans to decrease taxes for the well-off, active plans to get more guns on the street and eliminate “Planned Parenthood”, a service that benefits many women.

All this even before January 20.

Now, again, I ask not for argument. The above remarks are above argument, they simply exist and can be substantiated anywhere. It’s just my humble personal observation and it all matters in our health care future, which is why I bring them up.

Our current health care situation is quickly falling apart for at least two reasons (I’ll omit my scathing remarks on what’s going on in medical education).

1. I honestly believe that there is about a 50-50% chance that Mr. Trump’s coalition will collapse completely within 30 days of Jan 20. He has no clue about the delicate realities of global politics and his Cabinet members have no real experience in any other than “business” and that isn’t the way any of it works. Any number of other countries in the world could hurt us more than we could hurt them if they took a mind. Mr. Trump’s coalition fully intends to create a society built on unlikely or untried theoretical political conditions as a practical matter. It is absolutely not out of the question that the fabric of our society could be ripped apart into chaos and very quickly.

It’s already started. An increasing number of Republicans, his own party, have figured out he has no firm foundation for any of his Tweeted opinions, all capricious ramblings of what he happens to think at the moment. They’re making it known they’re re-thinking their support for him. This brings up another potential reality, that Mr. Trump et al will become very quickly bogged down in a system of government meant for- and created for bipartisan cooperation to get things done. If Mr. Trump’s coalition descends into the same kind of stubborn non-participation that has marked the past eight years, then nothing (again) will go forward and our system of government will descend into vicious and bitter fighting, wasting time and money in a very dangerous world. So much for “fixing” broken government. I do NOT see Mr. Trump actually achieving many if any of the advertised platform (such as it was) that elected him.

2. If any of that hat happens, our currently fragile health care provision system will collapse, if for no other reason than our current strategy to cope with administrative rationing will fail with it. Insurance and government strategy is to make reimbursement increasingly complicated so that those unwilling or unable to comply don’t get paid. What we’re doing now is allowing “middle management” and “financial specialists” to deal with the increasing complexities of reimbursement.  There are now an entire hall full of administrators and financial people where a lot of doctors used to be (including me). These guys peck at computers all day long all getting excellent salaries and benefits.

Now, at this point, everyone on this List should download and read every word of the following Time Magazine site (let me know if it doesn’t open for some reason).

http://content.time.com/time/subscriber/article/0,33009,2136864-1,00.html

Pay particular attention to the justifications given for incredibly outrageous charges by an automated service “Chargemaster” for patient caught in the middle- too young for Medicare and too many resources for Medicaid. Both Medicare and Medicaid pay providers only a small fraction of “Chargemaster” bills and they’re accepted. Also pay attention to the salaries for middle managers, CEOs, COOs and the like. You’ll note somewhere in the middle that the CEO of the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center’s salary (before bonuses) was close to 6 million $ per year. The same guy that mandates draconian budget cuts for the clinical departments, including mine every year.

W
e as providers are losing the battle of self-determination. We are losing that battle because we’re handing middle managers and financial officers the authority to order health care in an administrative system that considers us irrelevant. It considers us providers that create demand and they want to limit demand. They formulate policy and let us know how we fit into it, which is why the majority of us are not “hospital employees”. We can be controlled.

This is the state-of-the-art now for providing medical care for our population and I can assure you that if the administration, such as it is, of Mr. Trump collapses, this will all collapse with it. If Mr. Trump’s administration becomes embroiled in an endless fight with everyone creating chaos and stasis, this system will follow suit. If Mr. Trump is successful in killing the ACA, there will be a lot of people left wondering what and when their promises will be kept, even if it could be financed which is unlikely if he spends 25 billion on a useless wall. It took Obama two years to formulate the ACA and it wasn’t perfect. We’ll see what Republicans dedicated to “conservative principles” can come up with and when they can come up with it.

To end this diatribe as I sit here “retired” with a cup of coffee and my trusty iMac, I am very, very fearful for the future of the country, the health care system or the world for that matter and I’m not by nature a terribly pessimistic person. I am now an observer. We’ll all observe in time.