David Crippen, MD

Antivax- An argument sort of like the war cry of the Appalachian Wing Nut: “Ain’t no gov’ment gonna tell me what to do”, but in fact, it’s an empty argument since the Gov’ment tells all of us what to do all the time and if we don’t do it, there are unpleasant consequences. We must prove we have liability insurance for our cars. We must wear seat belts. We must have “approved” child seats for kids ion our vehicles.  We have speed limits. States with a half a grain of sense have mandatory DOT approved helmets for motorcyclists. We must pay income tax. There are rules pertaining to possession and use of firearms. If there are minor children involved, you must pay child support in the advent of divorce. The list goes on and on, 

And by the way, by law your child must have several vaccinations before they can enter public school. All these vaccinations are considered extremely safe and the very few adverse reactions that might occur are inconsequential compared to the disaster if any kid gets the childhood diseases they would be protected from. So-called “anti-vaxxers” are a blight on the planet. When they get away with avoiding vaccines for childhood diseases, those diseases (measles) explode in those areas.

The number of vaccinations in the USA have stalled now at under 50% for all the population last I looked, not enough for “herd immunity”, which means that the resistant forms of COVID in the un-vaccinated now have fresh meat. As a result the number of hospital admissions for COVID related issues are exploding. CDC reports that from one year (August 01, 2020 – July 30, 2021) there were two and a half million hospital admissions for COVID and over six hundred thousand deaths. All increasing now since the advent of the delta variation.

The number of vaccinations are stalled because we’ve reached the population that understand the importance of the shots and go out of their way to get them. We’re now looking at the population that actively reject the shots for whatever reason. Some distrustful of them, some political, some rabid anti-vaxxers, some lazy and don’t care. Some states have tried to generate interest by offering money and other incentives. If you watch Fareed Zakeria’s show this Sunday morning, one of his guests went into detail on why that won’t work. His book “Nudges” is quite interesting, 

Nobel winner Richard Thaler suggests that the way to get all those recalcitrants in gear is to create the same kinds of irritating adverse consequences we all suffer if we get crosswise with all the irritating laws currently in place (by the gov’ment). Sorry- no mask, no service. Sorry, no vaccination card, no seat on an aircraft. Sorry, no vaccination card, go eat or work somewhere else. Your kid didn’t get his vaccinations?  Home school. Those are the incentives that get people to comply with things like vaccinations.

If there are no adverse consequences to that population who for whatever reason don’t get the shots (and that’s where we’re stalled), then that population will inevitably land in hospitals and many will die from the virus. The personal and economic consequences of this mandate the same kind of laws that exist to protect the population.  It isn’t a personal choice issue. It’s my personal choice if I choose to drive my Ferrari at 120 miles per hour on Rt 28 near my home. But if I choose to do so, there are unpleasant consequences if I get caught, which is likely as a yellow Ferrari passing other cars like they’re standing still sort of stands out. 

There is no convincing data that there are any untoward reactions to any of the vaccinations more than would be expected by luck of the draw. There is convincing evidence that the vaccinations are at least as safe and effective as childhood disease vaccinations. The consequences of COVID are positively scary and are getting worse by the month. If we don’t achieve something like “herd immunity” (the virus is stamped out for want of a susceptible population), this scourge has the potential to keep killing people indefinitely. If there are no consequences for those refusing the immunization, the won’t do it, and that action will have it’s own consequences.

Unclear to me exactly what your argument against demonstrably effective vaccinations for viral illness is. The Government tells all of us what to do all the time and if we don’t do it, there are unpleasant consequences. We must prove we have liability insurance for our cars. We must wear seat belts. We must have “approved” child seats for kids in our vehicles.  We have speed limits. States with a half a grain of sense have mandatory DOT approved helmets for motorcyclists. We must pay income tax. There are rules pertaining to possession and use of firearms. If there are minor children involved, you must pay child support in the advent of divorce. The list goes on and on,

And as it pertains to children, by law, a school age child must have several vaccinations before they can enter public school. All these vaccinations are considered extremely safe and the very few adverse reactions that might occur are inconsequential compared to the disaster if any kid gets the childhood diseases they would be protected from. Polio and Smallpox were wiped out by vaccinations. So-called “anti-vaxxers” are blight on the planet. When they get away with avoiding vaccines for childhood diseases, those diseases (measles) explode in those areas. Nut cases like Jenny McCarthy know nothing about the science and are using completely obsolete evidence.

The number of vaccinations in the USA have stalled now at around 60% for all the population last I looked, not enough for “herd immunity”, which means that the resistant forms of COVID in the un-vaccinated now have fresh meat. As a result the number of hospital admissions for COVID related issues are exploding. Current numbers from the New York Times show to date in Pennsylvania there are 2.62 million COVID cases and 40,257 deaths. 

Way back when dinosaurs roamed the earth, I was a medical microbiology major in college. At some point, I had a virology course, taught by a full professor. The question of whether viruses were alive inevitably came up. Best of my recollection, the professor said there were two basic criteria that defined “life”:

1. The ability to replicate.
2. The ability to adapt to (survive) injurious environments.

If such an entity could not replicate or couldn’t adapt, the line would also stop right there.  The question of whether “personality” was necessary for life was undefined. Probably not, but then do we know whether viruses have personality?

Viruses most likely originated from early RNA-containing cells that for unknown reasons made an evolutionary leap away from the cellular form, casting off weighty metabolic shackles to opt for a more streamlined existence. While a virion is biologically inert in and of itself, once it enters a hospitable environment, it most assuredly can replicate and adapt. It is therefore “alive” (and smart) in a satisfactory sense.

The nature of a virus is to change its form to survive any environment. When one environment gets hostile, maybe from a creation of antibodies, it morphs to become resistant to those threats. Started with the original virus, then morphed to Delta and now Omicron. Pretty good chance it will continue to do so, maybe indefinitely, but each iteration becomes less virulent. There doesn’t seem to be much evidence that this virus will die off any time soon, even if we reach huge levels of vaccinated humans. We don’t seem to be on a rapid course for that. We’ll probably end up with yearly shots for it just like the usual Flu.

The numbers of vaccinations are stalled because we’ve reached the population that understand the importance of the shots and go out of their way to get them. We’re now looking at the population that actively reject the shots for whatever reason. Some distrustful of them, some political, some rabid anti-vaxxers, some lazy and don’t care. Some states have tried to generate interest by offering money and other incentives. If you watch Fareed Zakeria’s show a few Sundays ago, one of his guests went into detail on why that won’t work. 

Nobel winner Richard Thaler suggests that the way to get all those recalcitrants in gear is to create the same kinds of irritating adverse consequences we all suffer if we get crosswise with all the irritating laws currently in place (by the government). Sorry- no mask, no service. Sorry, no vaccination card, no seat on an aircraft. Sorry, no vaccination card, go eat or work somewhere else. Your kid didn’t get his vaccinations?  Home school. Those are the incentives that get people to comply with things like vaccinations. 

If there are no adverse consequences to that population who for whatever reason don’t get the shots (and that’s where we’re stalled), then that population will inevitably land in hospitals and many will die from the virus. The personal and economic consequences of this mandate the same kind of laws that exist to protect the population.  It isn’t a personal choice issue. It’s my personal choice if I choose to drive my Ferrari at 120 miles per hour on Rt 28 near my home. But if I choose to do so, there are unpleasant consequences if I get caught, which is likely as a yellow Ferrari passing other cars like they’re standing still sort of stands out. 

There is no convincing data that there are any untoward reactions to any of the vaccinations more than would be expected by luck of the draw. There is convincing evidence that the vaccinations are at least as safe and effective as childhood disease vaccinations. The consequences of COVID are positively scary and are getting worse by the month. If we don’t achieve something like “herd immunity” (the virus is stamped out for want of a susceptible population), this scourge has the potential to keep killing people indefinitely. If there are no consequences for those refusing the immunization, they won’t do it, and that action will have it’s own consequences.

I and everyone I know got the booster because it’s the lesser evil and the numbers are definitely on our side. The statistics clearly show that over 90% of those hospitalized and dying didn’t get the shots. Those that did had very mild courses if they got the bug. Two of my clinical colleagues that took a stand against the shots BOTH ended up in an ICU, one almost died. Don’t get fired over this. Your career is worth infinitely more than making a stand for a lost cause.